The case
West Brom's recent matches have been short on goals: four scored and three conceded across their last five fixtures, just 1.4 a game, with draws either side of a home win. The head-to-head record leans the same way — the last five meetings between these two produced 12 goals in total, an average of 2.4, and three of those five finished with two goals or fewer. That sample is still thin, since both squads have turned over a fair bit since those games were played. Birmingham are also missing two attacking outlets: J. Solis and P. Roberts combined for half of the assists in Birmingham's last five games, and both are out this time. Birmingham's listed scorers have managed 8 goals between them so far this season, so losing that pair narrows one of the team's main routes to goal.
The risks
Set against that, the wider picture argues for goals: the Championship is averaging 2.9 a match this season, and Birmingham's last five games alone produced 16 goals between the two sides. Team news isn't out yet, and a fully fit West Brom attack, or a Birmingham front line with its regular starters back, would tilt this toward the over. Three of West Brom's own scorers — C. Styles, A. Heggebø and J. Morgan — have all found the net in the last five matches, so a settled lineup for them also cuts against the under.
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